Open Look: Milwaukee Bucks

Open Look: Milwaukee Bucks

--The Milwaukee Bucks have decided to completely rebuild the philosophy of their organization when they hired John Hammond as GM and Scott Skiles has Coach. They will replace the Two Larry’s (Harris, the GM, and Krystkowiak, the Coach).

--John Hammond is formerly from Detroit and Scott Skiles is formerly from Chicago. Skiles was brought in to shore up the pitiful Defense that the Bucks exhibited last season as they plummeted to a 26-56 record. They finished 23rd in Points-Allowed and 29th in Opp-FG%.

(1) Sign PF Kurt Thomas to a 2-year/8-million dollar contract: The Bucks were a terrible rebounding team last season. They had no legitimate “power” forward, starting smalls like Charlie Villaneuva, Yi Jianlian, and Bobby Simmons. Thomas would bring a veteran presence in the post and he would help Bogut on the boards. He can give you 25 MPG, 7.5 PPG, and 5.5 RPG.

(2) Keep the Existing Roster Intact for the start of the 08-09 Season: I examined their trade pieces, and I came up with Simmons, Villaneuva, and Desmond Mason. Mason and Villaneuva come off the books after next season, so they may be more valuable as an in-season trade than an off-season trade. Simmons contract is hard to move. Sure, I had him going to New York for Q. Richardson and N. Robinson in my earlier Open Look, and I found a possibility by trading him straight-up for Troy Murphy of the Indiana Pacers, but, overall, they should keep him, for now…

(3) Make the Starting Small Forward Position an Open Competition: Skiles should make them work for it, who plays better D, who is a better ball distributor, who fits Skiles’ system. All of this should be brought into consideration. The Bucks have Simmons, Villaneuva, Yi, and Desmond Mason. See who wins out. Who wants it more. Make all 4 smalls earn their minutes.

(4) Install PG Ramon Sessions as Mo Williams’ backup, for now: Ramon Sessions dazzled the NBA in the last month of the season by averaging 13.1 APG in 7 starts. That’s amazing for a late-second-round draft pick. Mo was signed for a long-term contract and they are committed to him, at least until Sessions can supplant him as the starting point…

(5) Draft PF Kevin Love with the #7 pick in the 2008 NBA Draft: The Bucks should ignore Anthony Randolph, who is a 3 with size, they have that already. They should draft a legit PF who has some pretty good upside. They will start Kurt Thomas but Love can come in and learn, he can spell Thomas and Bogut. He is a great passer for a big man and he could develop into a Brad Miller-type all-around baller.

(6) Watch the Next 4 Players Closely: Bogut, Yi, Sessions, and Villaneuva all have expiring contracts at the end of next season. This should be a make-or-break for these guys. If Bogut doesn’t pan out, shop him, if Villaneuva doesn’t play D, shop him, if Yi is a bust, wash your hands, and if Sessions was a one-month wonder, sayonara!

2008 Potential Depth Chart

PG M. Williams R. Sessions
SG M. Redd D. Mason C. Bell
SF C. Villaneuva Yi Jianlian B. Simmons
PF K. Thomas K. Love
C A. Bogut D. Gadzuric

Depth Outlook

--Put the ball in Michael Redd’s hands as much as possible. He is the go-to guy. He is the star of the team. He’s has to play spirited defense and lead by example to get his team out of the doldrums. The Central has two powerhouses in Detroit and Cleveland. Then, Chicago and Indiana are still there. The Bucks have some serious competition.

--Small forward open competition: see above.

--Groom Kevin Love as the starting power forward. Sure, with Love and Bogut on the court, they are a slower team. But they could dominate down low and the Bucks need to hope that they can combine an average of 25/20 to give other teams fits on the block.

--See if Yi pans out. Give him every opportunity to succeed. If he doesn’t pan out, then seek a trade and move-on.

Cap Outlook

--The expiring contracts of: Royal Ivey (770,610), Michael Ruffin (770,610), Awvee Storey (770,610), and Jake Voskuhl (3,000,000) come off the books this season. T

--They are currently 8,018, 469 OVER the cap. These 4 contracts will give them a relief of 5,311,830. They will still be 2,706,639 OVER.

Franchise Outlook

--Year Zero/One: See above.
--Year One: Make the Bucks a competitive, night-in-night-out defensive-minded basketball team modeled after Scott Skiles. Spit out and pits that don’t fit into the watermelon and aim for 35 wins and a possible playoff berth.
--Year Two: With Bogut, Villaneuva, Yi, and Mason coming off the books, the Bucks will have some Cap Flex for the 09 Free Agents. Stay competitive, aim for the playoffs as a season-long goal.
--Year Three: Become a perennial playoff team and win a first-round matchup.
--Year Four: Attempt to supplant the Pistons/Cavaliers as the Central powerhouse and make a deep-run into the Eastern Conference.

One Plus One: Danny Granger & Wilson Chandler

--“One Plus One” is a compare/contrast segment of Possession Arrow. We will take one player and compare him to another established player that is already in the Association by using metric analysis.

--This week’s segment will detail the similarities between Knicks’ Wilson Chandler and the Pacers’ Danny Granger. Since Donnie Walsh is knowledgeable about the Pacers’ Danny Granger (he drafted him), he will surely see the similarities between the two.

--Quick Hits: First off, size. Granger is listed as 6’9” @ 228 lbs. Chandler @ 6’8” @ 220 lbs.

--Granger attended New Mexico and Chandler, DePaul.

--Granger’s final season @ NM, he averaged: 18.8 PPG, 2.4 APG, 8.9 RPG, 2.0 BLK, 2.1 STL, and his FG% was .524 whereas his 3PT% was .433.

--Chandler’s final season @ DP, he averaged: 14.6 PPG, 1.4 APG, 6.9 RPG, 1.4 BLK, 0.6 STL, and his FG% was .450 whereas his 3PT% was .333.

--Granger’s first season @ Indiana, he played 78 games and started 17, he averaged: 7.5 PPG, 1.2 APG, 4.9 RPG, 0.8 BLK, 0.7 STL, .462 FG%, .323 3PT%, .777 FT%, and he clocked 22.6 Minutes Per Game (“MPG”).

--Chandler’s first season @ New York, he played 35 games and started 16, he averaged: 7.3 PPG, 0.9 APG, 3.6 RPG, 0.46 BLK, 0.43 STL, .438 FG%, .300 3PT%, .630 FT% and he clocked 19.6 MPG.

--Chandler’s adjusted first season* (taking the fact that Granger averaged 22.6 MPGs, and Chandler only 19.6, that’s a +3.0 in Granger’s favor, therefore, I multiplied Chandler’s stats by 13.27%, the formula being 19.6/22.6, etc.): 8.27 PPG, 1.02 APG, 4.08 RPG, 0.52 BLK, 0.49 STL.

--Judging from their last year’s stats in College and their first year’s stat in the NBA, we can see a similar pattern. Both players did not play in Power Conferences in College, they played @ Mid-Major programs. Granger is a better shooter overall, in every aspect. He is also a better defender.

--Let’s switch gears. Granger’s second season @ Indiana, he bumped up to 13.9/1.4/4.7. Third season (this year), he busted-out and became a legitimate All-Star contender that the Indiana Pacers can build around now that Larry Bird has full-control: 18.9/2.1/6.0.

--Therefore, if Donnie Walsh follows my Open Look segment for the Knicks and gives Chandler the starting nod @ 3, then a line of: 14/2/5.5 is a benchmark to aim for, and then, hopefully, if Chandler pans out, you can see a Granger-esque third-year when they try to compete for the playoffs.

Open Look: New York Knickerbockers

-"The Walsh Plan"-

Donnie Walsh
President of Basketball Operations
Year Zero


(1) Fire Isiah Lord Thomas III: Walsh will have his mandatory sit-down with Isiah and he will come to the conclusion that Isiah is not fit for the future direction of the Knicks franchise. Isiah has a good eye for talent but poor judgment. Therefore, I can see Joe Dumars hire Isiah as a consultant for the Pistons. He will be welcomed there and he will not have a position of power. It’s his best-case scenario.

(2) Hire Scott Perry as General Manager: Walsh should resist the urge of hiring Kiki V away from the Nets. Kiki did not manage the Denver cap well and he is not the answer to this team. Scott Perry assisted in building the young nucleus of the Pistons and he should be a good 1-2 combo with Walsh.

(3) Retain Glen Grunwald as VP of Basketball Operations: Grunwald should be the only holdover of the Isiah administration.

(4) Hire Mark Jackson as Coach: Mark Jackson’s appointment as coach seems to fit like a glove on paper and I’m sure that he will impress Walsh with his leadership abilities.

(5) Buyout Stephon Marbury’s contract: Walsh should wash his hands of this PR nightmare. Give him his buyout and let the door hit him on the way out.

(6) Trade Eddie Curry & Nate Robinson TO Seattle for Earl Watson, Damien Wilkins, & Johan Petro: Eddie Curry is a terrible basketball player. He may be a scorer, but he doesn’t rebound, defend, help-D, or distribute well. He is a humungous liability. Walsh should consider making this trade. It will give Seattle the Big they always wanted, pairing him up with Kevin Durant & Jeff Green. Seattle should be in the Derrick Rose market so that makes Earl Watson expendable.

(7) Trade Quentin Richardson & Mardy Collins TO Milwaukee for Bobby Simmons: Trade a huge bust for another huge bust and you hope that a change of scenery will turn both careers around. That’s the theory.

(8) Sign Randolph Morris to a 2-year/2.5-million dollar contract: Randolph has some potential and I think he can max-out as a dependable Big off the bench. Give him 2-years and see if he can develop.

(9) Sign Chris Duhon to a 2-year/5-million dollar contract: The biggest problem the Knicks have is ball distribution. They are like a baseball team that doesn’t get on-base. Duhon is pass-first point-guard who should spell Earl Watson for at least 20 minutes per game.

(10) Draft O.J. Mayo with the 5th Overall Selection in the 2008 NBA Draft: Depending on where they actually pick, it looks like Mayo will fall at this spot. Time will tell, but O.J. can score, and the Knicks desperately need a shooter.


2008 Potential Depth Chart:

PG Earl Watson -- Chris Duhon
SG Jamal Crawford -- Damien Wilkins -- O.J. Mayo
SF Wilson Chandler -- Bobby Simmons -- Renaldo Balkman
PF Zach Randolph -- Jarred Jefferies -- Malik Rose
C David Lee -- Johan Petro -- Randolph Morris -- Jerome James




Depth Outlook:

-Earl Watson and Chris Duhon will help immediately in ball distribution. Earl and Chris combined for a 3.107 AST/TO Ratio compared to the 2.034 that Crawford/Marbury/Collins/Robinson posted at the PG spot last season. That’s a jump of 1.073.

-Giving David Lee more playing time. Lee has the potential of being a 15/10 guy as a starter in this league and he does all the little things well. He is Mr. Intangible. He is overmatched as a starting center, at that position, he’s mainly a rotation-guy, but switching off with Zach Randolph and giving David 30-plus minutes will be beneficial to the franchise.

-Give Wilson Chandler a chance to start as SF. Chandler has impressed in the last couple of weeks with extended playing time. He has big-time potential. In fact, he is very similar to the Pacers' Danny Granger (more on that in the next blog!).

-Reduce Jamal Crawford’s control of the floor and preach shot selection. Sure, Jamal can score 20-plus but he only shoots at a 40% clip. That is terrible. With added emphasis on Earl Watson running the show and giving more shots to Zach, David, and Wilson, Jamal should focus on being a Rip Hamilton type player and start off by raising his FG above 42.5% minimum, if not, then he has to go in order to make room for O.J. Mayo.

-Preach D, especially with Zach Randolph. He may be the worst post-defender in the league. He is the biggest liability to the team’s success at this juncture. He needs to take the other side of the ball seriously or the Knicks will have no choice but to shop him as well.

Cap Outlook:

-The expiring contracts of: Stephon Marbury (19,012,500), Jerome James (5,800,000), Malik Rose (7,101,250) all come off the books in 2009. That’s $31,913,750 off the Cap.

-Add: Renaldo Balkman (1,280,640), Wilson Chandler (1,091,640), David Lee (990,600), and Johan Petro (1,077,120) as well: $4,440,000.

-That’s a total of $36,353,750 off the Cap on 2009. That should bring them near the Cap-Max for 2009.

Donnie Walsh’s 4-year Plan (based on his 4-year deal):

-Year Zero/One: See above.
-Year One: Lower expectations, aim for 30-wins, re-build the franchise.
-Year Two: Attain Cap flex with expiring contracts, aim to contend for the playoffs.
-Year Three: Hit the Free Agent blitz (aka, LeBron James) and make the big push to be a perennial playoff contender.
-Year Four: Become a legitimate contender in the Eastern Conference. Challenge for the NBA Title.